BJP IS ALL SET TO HAVE ITS FIRST CHIEF MINISTER IN PATNA ON NOV 14: Dr CHANDRA

In the latest offering of the JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra analyses the political dynamics of Bihar ahead of the upcoming elections, asserting that the JDU has been “hijacked by the BJP” and is now on a path of decline. He said Nitish Kumar remains “unaware” of the shifting loyalties within his party, while the BJP is positioning itself for long-term dominance. Dr Chandra predicted that the JDU might merge with the BJP within two years and stressed that Bihar’s single-party era ended with Lalu Prasad in 1995. He further observed that the BJP lacks a strong state-level face and is still “searching for a leader it can groom for the next 25 years.”. Excerpts... (Part-I)

• The JC Show’s headline this week is “Will the Saffron Flag Fly Over Patna This Time?” What is the meaning behind it?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: This message is very clear: Bihar is now firmly in the lap of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav, and Prashant Kishor are irrelevant in this context. There was some curiosity regarding Prashant Kishor—people thought he understood the functioning and strategy of Modi and Shah in depth, and might bring something new or big, but even he has failed before Narendra Modi. None of them had imagined that Modi and Shah would divide the electorate into several groups, make them leaders of their respective beneficiary clusters, and transfer such huge sums of money through government schemes just before the elections. Imagine what it meant for a woman to receive Rs 10,000 in her account right before Chhath, it was truly a moment of ‘Amrit Kaal’ for her. Families seeing Rs 10,000 credited forgot everything else. Narendra Modi will break the myth that no government in Patna can be formed without Nitish Kumar. Mark my words—on the 14th, BJP will emerge as the single largest party. Along with JDU, it will form the government, and it will have its own CM. By the 17th or 18th, you will see the saffron flag flying over Patna.
• Despite the NDA not declaring a Chief Ministerial candidate, Nitish Kumar’s party continues to project him as CM during the campaign. Isn’t that a contradiction? And what message does the equal seat-sharing of 101–101 between BJP & JDU convey?
  Yes, it is a contradiction, but a bitter one that BJP is tolerating. Today, there are hoardings in Patna proclaiming ‘Nitish Kumar’s leadership from 2025 to 2030.’ They have declared him Chief Minister for that period. This is about belief—and no one controls belief. Delhi’s control over Nitish Kumar is anyway limited. As of now, BJP is tolerating this, but certainly has reservations in its mind. That is why he has not been projected as Chief Minister. Amit Shah, in his last interview with India Today, had said that elections would be fought under Modi’s leadership, but the Chief Minister’s decision would be taken later. Amid all these contradictions and political compulsions, Nitish Kumar is content seeing his workers raise slogans like ‘The next Chief Minister should be like Nitish Kumar.’ Let them remain happy, at least till the 14th.
  Secondly, the message is clear—BJP is going to have its own Chief Minister in Patna on the 14th. No ‘elder brother, younger brother’ concept anymore. They have aptly termed this new equation ‘First Party & First Unity.’ The BJP and PMO media teams have crafted the narrative skillfully , no one is superior, both stand equal for the first time. The psychological dominance Nitish Kumar once held has been neutralized in one stroke, placing both on equal footing. The message is clear: BJP will stake its claim for the Chief Minister’s post.
• When the ticket distribution decided in Delhi reached Patna, reports suggest Nitish Kumar was angry and asked his team how they accepted that formula. Did you also hear about this?
  Yes, I heard it and it is true. People often say Nitish Kumar remains in a semi-conscious state, but that is a myth, a mystery. Those close to him say his ‘antenna’ switches on and off and when news of ticket distribution came, it was ‘fully on’ that day. Two JDU Dalit MLAs, Kaushal Kishore and Ratnesh, whose tickets were cut and given to Chirag Paswan’s candidates, met Nitish Kumar in distress. Already upset with the system, they informed him about their ticket denial. Nitish, mentally alert that day, grew furious and the next day replaced five candidates earlier allotted to Chirag with his own party nominees. The incident was real, Nitish Kumar was clearly upset. Sanjay Jha later claimed all was well and Nitish remained the NDA’s united face, a statement meant to pacify. The matter was briefly settled, but Nitish’s anger that day was unmistakably real.
• What is the real story behind giving 29 seats to Chirag Paswan? It is being said that BJP is effectively contesting not 101 but 142 seats. What does that mean?
  This is not just a story—it shows Narendra Modi’s deep understanding of public sentiment. His grasp of the people’s pulse and ground realities is unmatched. While others focus on strategy, Modi’s personal assessment is always a class apart. From the start, he believed Chirag Paswan is a compulsory component of the government. For the NDA to win decisively with a sweeping majority, no gap should be left, and Chirag, both compulsory and popular, fits that role. In the last Lok Sabha election, he had a 100% strike rate, winning all five seats. That impressed the PM, who has a soft corner for Chirag. I heard Modi said, “Do whatever you must— make it 29 or 19—but Chirag should not leave the alliance.” Last time, opposing Nitish cost him 30–35 seats. Though Chirag contested 135 seats and won none then, his Lok Sabha success—five wins—impacted around 30 assembly constituencies, showing his continued influence. Politically, the top leadership chose to accommodate him, knowing he has nowhere else to go. BJP is effectively contesting 142 seats—101 directly, 29 via Chirag, and about 12 through Manjhi and Kushwaha. This showcases BJP’s political arithmetic, a masterstroke by Amit Shah and JP Nadda: 101 direct, 142 by proxy.
• Political observers say Nitish Kumar’s farewell time has come. Do you agree? And if so, what should be the tone of that farewell?
  Every leader, especially every Chief Minister, has a time to bid farewell. Whether it was Jyoti Basu or Naveen Patnaik, all had their moment when their innings ended. It appears Nitish Kumar’s time for farewell has now arrived. His exit could happen in two ways—either the public will send him off by giving him very few seats (perhaps around 40), or even if the alliance wins, BJP will bid him farewell after the election. That is the perception. Departure is a part of life. After twenty years in power, Nitish Kumar should now choose the path of dignity—something like a ‘Vanaprastha Ashram.’ He has ruled with grace and should take pride in that legacy. But the attachment to power is hard to let go. You are right in saying that his farewell song needs to be written carefully. Our assessment is that there will be a new Chief Minister in Patna— a BJP Chief Minister, someone other than Nitish Kumar. But it won’t be easy. History shows that whenever his chair has been in danger, Nitish Kumar has found a way to retain it. He has switched sides four times to save his position. So, even now, something must be going on in his mind to prevent losing power. All visible indications point toward his exit, yet his track record suggests otherwise. Given his background and his unrelenting efforts to stay in power, it cannot be said with certainty that he will leave easily. Let us wait for the 14th to see how the story unfolds.
• Will Nitish Kumar’s poor governance and deteriorating law and order over the past two years make him a liability for the NDA in this election?
  To some extent, yes, but not significantly. This election is being fought under Narendra Modi’s leadership. Modi’s appeal in Bihar far exceeds Nitish Kumar’s. As for law and order, people are not deeply affected. While national media recently portrayed Bihar as the “murder capital” and suggested a return of the “Jungle Raj,” the reality is different. The recent murders were not organised crimes like during Lalu’s time, they were individual incidents arising from property disputes, domestic conflicts, or relationship issues. These were crimes of passion, not systemic criminality. Moreover, voters are asking—if not Nitish, then who? Will they bring back Lalu or Tejashwi Yadav, who carry the baggage of Jungle Raj? The choice before them is poor. So, even if governance or law and order has declined slightly, it will not hurt Nitish Kumar much because the alternative is not convincing.
• Political observers believe that if BJP fails to make Nitish Kumar Chief Minister due to political constraints, Congress and RJD may extend outside support to him to help him retain power. Do you see that possibility?
  Absolutely. It has happened before and may happen again. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are well aware of this. BJP’s policymakers recognize that possibility too. In fact, if Nitish Kumar were given a choice today between BJP and Tejashwi Yadav, he would surprisingly choose Tejashwi. He does not want BJP’s Chief Minister to be formed. His instinctive inclination is towards Tejashwi, and RJD still holds a sense of sympathy for him. Apart from Kushwaha, Manjhi, and others, RJD’s campaign is not strongly anti-Nitish— it is primarily anti-BJP. They are trying to evoke local sentiment by saying that “outsiders from Gujarat are running the election.” Essentially, their attacks are aimed at BJP, not Nitish. So yes, this possibility exists in Nitish’s mind. But circumstances are different now. I firmly believe that even if such a situation arises, Nitish Kumar will not be able to execute another switch. If he tries to leap from one side to another, he will get stuck midway. Amit Shah has made it clear: “Enough is enough.” Political dishonesty will not be tolerated this time.
• Given the current political situation in Bihar, what do you see as the future of Nitish Kumar’s party, JDU? Since 1995, no political party in Bihar has been able to form a government on its own. Do you believe that history will repeat itself this time as well?
  JDU, for all practical purposes, has been hijacked by the BJP. As I said earlier, Nitish Kumar is absolutely unaware of how much of his support base and loyalists have drifted away. Among JDU’s legislators, there is a strange sense of fear—without even being told, they are leaning toward the BJP in Patna. It’s as if they are just waiting for a call from the BJP to switch sides.
  The JDU’s future depends entirely on the postelection government. Nitish Kumar’s return as CM appears unlikely, though destiny is unpredictable. Even if he does regain the post, it would be by sheer luck, leading a remotely controlled party with minimal real power, as is already evident. not hold real power.
  The BJP’s performance, on the other hand, seems likely to be stronger this time. Gradually, within the next two to twoand-a-half years, the JDU could merge with the BJP. Politically, Amit Shah may decide that a formal merger isn’t necessary— that it’s better to keep the JDU at a distance but within their orbit, like Chirag Paswan’s party. The JDU may stay nominally independent, called upon only when needed, like a reserve force. Its existence isn’t immediately threatened, but the party is clearly in decline and losing relevance.
  Secondly, yes, history is already repeating itself—no party is in a position to win 122 seats on its own this time. Neither the BJP, nor the JDU, nor the RJD can secure a simple majority independently. Bihar continues to operate under a multiparty rule. The era of ‘single-party rule’ in Bihar ended with Lalu Prasad in 1995, and since then, neither Nitish Kumar nor any other leader has been able to secure an absolute majority. That’s an unchangeable fact of Bihar politics— and it’s going to be repeated once again this time.
• Bihar remains the only Hindi-speaking state where the BJP has never been able to form a government entirely on its own. Why is that the case?
  The first reason is that Nitish Kumar, through a well-calculated strategy, prevented any strong Hindutva leader from emerging by dividing caste groups and keeping power fragmented over the past 35 years. The political and social structure of Patna and Bihar, in general, has always been deeply casteoriented, with governance shaped around caste equations rather than ideology. The second reason is that the BJP never had a leader in Bihar with the same political acumen and network control as Nitish Kumar, a true ‘wire-puller,’ who could dominate state politics. BJP has always relied on alliances, lacking the courage to contest independently. With Nitish Kumar’s health declining, this year was a chance, but strategists lacked nerve. They must have done their calculations and decided that it wouldn’t work, leading to yet another round of coalition politics. It’s also a fact that there is no prominent Hindutva face in Bihar. The BJP has accepted this reality, even though at the top level— within the leadership of Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and JP Nadda—this question is frequently discussed: how long will Bihar remain the exception where the BJP doesn’t have its own Chief Minister? They have been contemplating finding a leader who can be groomed over the next 25 years— someone they can train and shape into a strong future face for Bihar. Nityanand Rai’s name often comes up in these discussions. He is considered close to the leadership, sincere, mature, and dependable. For instance, he recently visited Chirag Paswan’s mother’s residence during the family dispute, which reflects his interpersonal skills and political tact. However, even today, he is not yet seen as a fully complete leader capable of taking on the role of Chief Minister. The BJP is still searching for a face it can build and project for the long term. Over the next few decades, the party hopes to nurture such a leader, someone who can carry the BJP’s independent political identity in Bihar into the future. So, let’s see how it unfolds.

TO BE CONTINUED...

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