GARDA UDA DIYA: DR JAGDEESH CHANDRA DECODES THE NAMO–NITISH CHEMISTRY BEHIND BIHAR’S 202-SEAT SWEEP

In the latest offering of The JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra stresses that Bihar’s historic mandate is a testament to Narendra Modi’s unmatched charisma and the unique chemistry he forged with Nitish Kumar, enabling the NDA to achieve an unprecedented 202 seats. He opines that despite emerging as the single largest party, BJP chose a cautious and magnanimous approach by allowing Nitish Kumar to take the Chief Minister’s chair, though he believes this arrangement is temporary and a BJP Chief Minister in Patna is inevitable within a year. Dr Chandra further notes that women voters, welfare schemes, and Modi’s personality cult decisively shaped the election outcome. (Part-I)

• The headline of today’s JC Show is “Garda Uda Diya.” What exactly does this phrase signify? Deendayal Upadhyay’s dream has been fulfilled, and the NaMo–Nitish chemistry has created a 202-seat miracle in the Bihar polls. How would you like to define this chemistry?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: Narendra Modi has emerged as a hero in the Bihar elections. With his charisma and his unique chemistry with Nitish Kumar, he has helped secure a miraculous figure of 202 seats. For the first time in history, under his leadership, the BJP has emerged as the single largest party in the real sense. This election may have been fought in the name of Nitish Kumar, but the real face of the campaign was Narendra Modi. It was on his face that the BJP and the NDA fought the election. Earlier, it was said that the Congress held the rural vote while the BJP held the urban vote. But this election proved otherwise. Narendra Modi demonstrated — by ‘garda uda diya’, as they say — that the rural vote is also with us. Both rural and urban votes have come to the BJP. This is a significant message from Bihar. That is why Western media wrote in their newspapers that the massive victory in Bihar sends out one clear message: Narendra Modi is the tallest political leader in India at present, who has no alternative, and who will rule the nation for years to come — one can say even for ten years. You can say that the tremendous victory, the miracle in Bihar, the extraordinary outcome — all of it has sent a wave across villages and cities alike. Just as ‘garda udda diya’ in Bihar, the same will be repeated in Bengal. They will go to Bengal and ‘garda uda’ the election there as well.
• Despite emerging as the single largest party in the results, why is the BJP not staking claim to form the government on its own, and why is it once again placing Nitish Kumar in the Chief Minister’s chair? Why did the BJP let go of the opportunity to appoint its own Chief Minister in Patna?
  Some political compulsions — and the goodwill of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Otherwise, naturally, as the single largest party, with 117 seats already and 122 required with the alliance, the BJP could have gone to the Raj Bhavan and requested an invitation to form the government. The Governor would have had no option but to invite the BJP, being the single largest party. The BJP Chief Minister would have taken oath, a show of strength would have followed, and in the meantime four or five people could have joined — as we see in politics these days. But Narendra Modi showed goodwill. Some advisors also believed it was too early to sideline Nitish Kumar; doing so might have boomeranged because of women and economically backward votes. So, a cautious view was taken. Nitish Kumar’s longstanding desire to remain Chief Minister at any cost was also a factor — there was a possibility that he might shift elsewhere if denied the post. The BJP took a sensible step, respected Nitish Kumar, sacrificed some of its own interests, and allowed his coronation to proceed in this manner. But when you say the BJP has lost an opportunity — I do not believe so. It is not a lost opportunity. I firmly believe this is a temporary arrangement. Maybe six months, maybe a year — ultimately there will be a BJP Chief Minister in Patna.
• Do you believe that within this same Assembly term, the BJP will replace Nitish Kumar with its own Chief Minister?
  One hundred percent. The Assembly term is five years; you will see this happening in less than a year. The reason is clear: the BJP has a dream that in every state of North India, there should be a BJP Chief Minister. Bihar was an exception. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah worked tirelessly to win it and create the conditions for forming the government. Now that power is within reach and the Chief Minister’s chair is available, how long will they leave it? The party workers in Patna will not tolerate it; the leaders will also start pressing for greater participation in power. The workers no longer want governance through remote control. They do not want Nitish Kumar controlling everything. They want direct control and direct participation in decision-making. So much pressure will come from within that the BJP high command will not be able to withstand it. Eventually, they will have to tell Nitish Kumar — we showed goodwill when the time came, now you must also show goodwill and leave the chair for the BJP’s Chief Minister. This is natural. Nitish Kumar has held the post multiple times. Today the BJP has the chance to claim a state that is theirs. Therefore, I am convinced that very soon — maybe within a year — Patna will have a BJP Chief Minister.
• In the new Nitish Kumar government, how many Deputy Chief Ministers do you expect, and what will the shape of the cabinet be? Given the overwhelming support from women and youth, shouldn’t at least one Deputy Chief Minister be a woman?
  The decision about Deputy Chief Ministers will be taken by the BJP — by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. It is not in Nitish Kumar’s hands right now. But one thing appears clear: Samrat, who was earlier Deputy Chief Minister, is being talked about. People say he performed reasonably well, and the caste equation also favours him. So, it is almost certain he will become Deputy Chief Minister. There may be one or two more. In my personal view, at least two Deputy CMs will be appointed, and possibly even three, depending on power balance and formation requirements. But for now, only Samrat’s name is prominent. Let us see — in two or three days it will be clear. Regarding your second point — it should happen. The suggestion should reach the leadership. Women definitely deserve it. At least one Deputy Chief Minister should be from the women’s category. It is a good suggestion, and perhaps your suggestion will reach the right place and be considered. On merit, the proposal stands strong. Given the massive support from women, there should certainly be one woman Deputy Chief Minister in the cabinet.
• At this stage of his political career, has Nitish Kumar identified his successor? If he were to voluntarily retire today, what options would be available to him?
  This is a peculiar situation. It appears that the position of the JDU in Bihar may become similar to that of the BJD in Odisha, where Naveen Patnaik, despite ruling for a very long time, never chose a successor. The party is now leadershipdeficient. People within the JDU have often suggested that Nitish Kumar hand over leadership to his son. They have said this many times, but he has not agreed. There are two reasons: First, perhaps the Chief Minister does not want to bring his son into politics. Nitish Kumar’s son is around 40 years old, his name is Nishant. When I asked someone what he is doing, I was told he is learning work under Nitish Kumar’s nephew Manish, who is the IT head — learning some kind of training, but not directly political. Nitish Kumar is still not ready to declare him as his successor. Last time, I told you two government vehicles had gone to pick him up once, and officers got suspended. Nitish Kumar is maintaining distance very cautiously so that he cannot be accused of promoting family rule. The second aspect is that he does not want to give up power. I do not think Nitish Kumar has any successor plan. He does not seem to have such a vision for the future. Regarding your second question — in politics, there are always many options. He could go to the Rajya Sabha, for example. He would then have two bungalows — one in Patna, one in Delhi. He will remain a hero in Bihar. At one time, during Lalu Prasad’s era, Nitish Kumar was the closest advisor. He has the capacity to make himself flexible. If he goes back to Bihar, he will be considered a hero; he can assume role of a friend, philosopher, and guide. If he shifts to Delhi, he can visit Amit Shah for tea — life will go on. So there are many options. But giving up power is difficult for anyone. Nitish Kumar is no exception.
• Despite Nitish Kumar’s 20 years in power, Mahagathbandhan failed to create any major issue or anti-establishment factor against him. How do you view this failure?
  You are right — it is a failure. If Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi continue fighting among themselves and fail to devise a strategy, then where will they find issues? The second major point is that Nitish’s camp claims this was a pro-incumbency election. Even if I call it negative, it was not so negative that people felt strongly about ousting Nitish. After 20 years, people were a little tired and bored, but then welfare schemes arrived — money was transferred into people’s accounts. One man from Bihar told me that in his family, there were four women, and they received `40,000. For a poor family, `40,000 is enough to reduce negative sentiment. I once read somewhere that Bihar seems to be carrying an ancient curse — the land that produced revolutions is not prosperous today. People of Bihar are very active in politics, but in development, it seems the state is stuck. This is a major challenge before the new double-engine government and especially for PM. Making Bihar a developed and industry-prone state is the biggest agenda. But the anti-government sentiment you mentioned could not fully develop.
• Bihar recorded a historic voter turnout of 67.13%. What is the message behind this?
  The message is Women Power. In this election, 2.51 crore women voters and 2.47 crore men voters cast their votes— meaning 4.25 lakh more women voted than men. Interestingly, if you look at the voter list, there are 42 lakh fewer registered women voters compared to men. Yet, despite this gap, women came out to vote in very large numbers. Women voted overwhelmingly in favour of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. This is a major factor. Another supplementary reason may be that 25% of voters who are non-Dalit usually do not vote in Bihar — neither in Assembly nor in Lok Sabha elections. They have little interest, thinking this is a backward state. Perhaps this time they voted. But the main reasons remain the women factor and Narendra Modi’s attraction, leadership, and crowd-pulling capacity.

TO BE CONTINUED...

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