In the US - Iran crisis, the nation has full faith and trust in Modi’s leadership to maintain supply chain: Dr Chandra

In the latest offering of the JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra assesses Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s handling of a complex global conflict, highlighting the centrality of diplomacy over warfare. He argues that India’s strategic approach ensured stability in fuel prices and supply chains, even as other nations faced disruptions. Dr Chandra underscores the government’s focus on citizen safety, strict monitoring, and decisive action against hoarding. He also points to India’s unique diplomatic positioning, citing its engagement with both the United States and Iran, including the provision of safe passage for Indian vessels, as evidence of an effective and globally validated foreign policy doctrine. Excerpts...

• Today’s headline on The JC Show is “Why is the ceasefire collapsing, and why does India continue to place complete trust in Modi?” What are the implications of this?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: The first part concerns why the ceasefire is collapsing. The basic reason is a trust deficit; there is no mutual confidence between the parties. Talks are scheduled in Islamabad today, but even before the discussions begin, the ceasefire is not merely weakening—I would say it is nearing collapse. There is no possibility that today’s engagement will reach any common agreement.
• Iran has clearly stated that unless Lebanon is included in the negotiations, talks will not proceed. Even if discussions take place under pressure, they are unlikely to yield any meaningful outcome. On the other side, Trump has said that if a deal is not reached, there will be severe attacks. Therefore, the talks are beginning in an atmosphere defined by mistrust and a deep trust deficit. That is why I would not just say the ceasefire is faltering; I would say it is in its final moments & close to breaking down completely.
  The second part concerns the widespread trust in Narendra Modi, a clear reality. Despite multiple global crises, India has remained stable, largely due to his leadership. He has taken two key positions: ensuring supply chains remain intact & placing citizens’ safety above all.
  In addition, he has mobilised the entire Council of Ministers and the administrative machinery toward this objective. He personally monitors the situation for two hours every day. Overall, he is handling the entire operation in a manner akin to managing a personal responsibility, something an individual would oversee closely. This approach has reinforced the deep trust that people across the country place in Narendra Modi, and that trust has once again been reaffirmed during this crisis.
• Is Trump trying to regain his lost prestige in this war, and is he looking for some pretext to restart the conflict from a new front?
  You are absolutely correct on both points. First, he is trying to regain his lost prestige or reputation. A message has spread across the world that Trump has lost and Iran has won.
  Second, just as during Operation Sindoor, there was a lingering sense in Narendra Modi’s mind that there was more to be done—waiting for an opportunity, for the other side to make a mistake—there is now a similar feeling with Trump. The perception that Trump has lost and Iran has won is something he wants to reverse.
  He appears to be seeking an opportunity, issuing warnings even before peace talks begin, signalling a readiness to escalate under some pretext. This suggests an intent to push the conflict toward a decisive turning point, shaping a global perception of victory in his favour rather than Iran’s. With talks already collapsing and tensions rising, the situation remains fluid; its outcome is yet to be seen.
• With Netanyahu stating that Israeli attacks on Lebanon will continue amid a heightened war atmosphere, what is the future of a possible Trump– Iran agreement?
  The core issue is the intensity of the war-driven approach. There is a strong inclination toward remaining in a state of conflict, almost a continuous preference for war. There is a clear readiness to seize any opportunity and immediately escalate. Even before ceasefire talks could progress—or Trump could intervene—fresh strikes in Lebanon killed around 300 in a day. With a wardriven mindset and tilt toward conflict, chances of any agreement appear bleak. Talks were derailed at the outset, reflecting a deep attachment to conflict, while Trump faces constraints with Israel’s Prime Minister. The situation remains fluid; the outcome uncertain.
• A key element of the United States–Iran agreement was to ensure free and uninterrupted movement of ships and tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has broken off the deal following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. What will Trump do now? Will he launch fresh attacks on Iran?
  Absolutely. As I mentioned earlier, aggression and war appear to be the primary inclination of the Israeli Prime Minister, and as the saying goes, one is influenced by the company one keeps. Being in close alignment, Trump’s approach has also become similar.
  As I pointed out, there was no waiting. Before negotiations could move forward, the Israeli Prime Minister ordered direct strikes. As for Trump, he consistently states—whether in public appearances or otherwise—that if the agreement is not accepted and if his conditions are not met, there will be severe consequences and massive attacks.
  At present, Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister are effectively on the same platform. This alignment is a key reason why the talks are failing.
• With general elections scheduled in Tel Aviv in October, is it a political compulsion for Netanyahu to keep the war going in some form until then?
  It may be described as something that began as a preference and has now effectively become a compulsion. Historically, it is rare for anyone to lose politically in a wartime environment, and in that context, he is performing strongly. You can see the nature of operations—targeted strikes within Iran, and the extent to which leadership figures have been eliminated, including both military and political leadership. In terms of war performance, he is excelling. He is highly effective in identifying specific targets and carrying out operations against them. This is likely to translate into electoral gains, though whether it consciously drives his strategy is secondary. The primary factor appears to be a sustained tilt toward conflict, likely yielding political gains. Political observers say that in this entire situation, the United Nations has become irrelevant and redundant. Do you agree with this assessment? Absolutely correct. Trump first undermined the World Health Organization, then the climate change agreement, and now has effectively rendered the United Nations ineffective. The UN has become a helpless and constrained institution.
  You are right in saying that it has turned redundant in a way. It would be better if Trump formally announced its closure rather than keeping it in a state that is neither fully functional nor entirely defunct. At times, assistance is extended to it, and at other times, that support is withdrawn. The basic point is that the United Nations has become completely irrelevant in this entire scenario.
• In the context of this war, is Trump also keeping an eye on the midterm elections in the United States in November?
  Absolutely. He is currently facing a serious popularity crisis. His approval ratings are declining, and he is dealing with that situation at present. With the midterm ratings approaching, he is closely watching those numbers. He appears to believe that the war could provide an opportunity to reverse the downward trend in his popularity. His assessment seems to be that, through the context of conflict, the graph of his public support—which has fallen significantly—might rise again. It remains to be seen whether his popularity, which has been falling rapidly, stabilises or improves. The situation will become clearer with time.
• Some experts on American affairs believe that Trump’s failure in this war may prove to be an unceremonious end to his presidency. Do you agree with this assessment?
  Absolutely, I agree. This war may prove to be his Waterloo, as it is often described. It could mark the beginning of the end of his presidency. Of course, this is a long process and will take time; it will not happen immediately. However, the process has already begun. The trajectory that could lead to him losing his presidency is already underway.
• Six months ago on The JC Show, you had claimed that one day Trump would become the biggest threat to world peace, and today that prediction seems to be coming true. Would you like to comment on this?
  Absolutely. It is often said that early signs reveal future outcomes. When Trump initially assumed power, his statements made it clear that he could become a threat to global peace. Today, that threat has materialised. The greatest danger to world peace is the possibility of a nuclear conflict—the pressing of the nuclear button. Despite ongoing talks and diplomatic efforts, my clear assessment remains that the possibility of Trump resorting to the nuclear option cannot be ruled out. In that sense, the earlier prediction has proven to be correct.
• During the “pause button” phase in the Iran– United States conflict, why did India step up engagement with Gulf countries, and who are the three key figures in the Modi government actively involved in this effort?
  Modi is a very strategic Prime Minister and does not waste a moment when it comes to protecting national interests. He assessed that the situation provided an opportunity to act and accordingly initiated diplomatic outreach. Jaishankar, Hardeep Puri, and the Foreign Secretary were deployed on different assignments. One was engaged at the United Nations, and another was sent to Qatar, with the objective of strengthening engagement and building goodwill. The idea was to convey appreciation for support extended, including facilitating Indian aircraft movement, while maintaining an empathetic stance during the crisis.
  Simultaneously, efforts are focused on ensuring oil and gas supplies to India remain uninterrupted. Overall, it is a goodwillbuilding effort and a focused diplomatic initiative to safeguard India’s interests amid a volatile situation.
• In this pause in the war, has Narendra Modi’s principle—that the solution to conflict lies not on the battlefield but at the negotiating table—been proven correct? Would you like to comment on this?
  It has been proven 100 percent, and more than once. He has repeatedly said that conflicts are ultimately resolved through diplomacy and dialogue. The solution to war emerges from negotiations.
  What is happening today illustrates this clearly. After fighting for 40 to 42 days and causing mutual destruction, the parties have returned to the negotiating table in Islamabad. This demonstrates that, despite prolonged conflict, the resolution ultimately lies in talks.
  Narendra Modi is awaiting the right moment in the Russia–Ukraine context, expecting an invitation to facilitate dialogue. Earlier mediation efforts suggest that, as the situation evolves, negotiations are still expected to take precedence. This reinforces his global doctrine, that war’s solutions lie not on the ground but at the table, through diplomacy and dialogue. Widely echoed as the ‘path of dialogue,’ it underscores that dialogue remains the only viable solution.
• How do you view this situation where both the US and Iran consider India & Modi as a friendly nation, and Iran is even granting safe passage to Indian ships through the Strait of Hormuz?
  Absolutely, It is widely seen as a diplomatic achievement of Narendra Modi. Despite India’s strong ties with the United States and Iran not always being aligned with India, Tehran is now engaging as a friend, offering reassurance and ensuring safe passage for Indian-flagged tankers through the Strait of Hormuz—a significant development. This has drawn global attention, with even the US seen as surprised. The outcome is being attributed to Modi’s diplomacy, personal relationships, and image as a constructive global leader. Iran has conveyed there is no cause for concern and regards India as a friendly country. The safe passage of Indian ships has attracted widespread global attention.
• Narendra Modi has said that this war is a test for the entire country. Despite the government’s efforts, are the coming days likely to be difficult? Will the impact of this conflict lead to rising prices of oil, petrol, gas, and fertilisers in India, as seen in many other countries?
  Broadly, it reflects Modi’s confidence in handling every situation. He has often said he challenges himself, and over the 42- day conflict has shown that India’s interests and citizens remained protected without major disruption. Fuel prices, petrol, diesel, & gas, didn’t rise, with supply largely stable at around 95%, despite minor local queues. Inflation saw only marginal impact, and unlike many countries, India avoided lockdowns, price surges, or widespread restrictions. Overall, this stability is being credited to leadership, with Narendra Modi seen as having managed the situation effectively.
• What steps has the Modi government taken to deal with this unprecedented crisis?
  The foremost step has been prioritising citizen safety. The second has been ensuring that there is no disruption in essential supplies, including gas & petrol. Another key aspect has been continuous monitoring, along with action against hoarders. The government has also convened all-party meetings to build consensus and confidence, while forming groups of ministers and groups of secretaries to manage different aspects of the situation.
  Daily monitoring has been maintained, & outreach conducted with countries from which India sources supplies, including direct communication for coordination & engagement. Personal influence and moral authority have also been utilised in the national interest, contributing to a situation where the 42-day period has largely passed without any major crisis. While some challenges may arise in the future, the overall situation has remained under control so far.

During the show #JConCeasefire trended top All-India on X