"Man in a burning building offering you spare room": US war expert Col Douglas Macgregor on Pakistan's mediation push in West Asia conflict

New Delhi : Geopolitical risk advisor and former US Army combatant, Colonel Douglas Macgregor (retd) has questioned the credibility of Pakistan, which is attempting to position itself in a negotiating role in the West Asia crisis, stating that the country faces severe internal challenges and would not be viewed as neutral by Israel.

In an interview with ANI, Col Macgregor, who served as the advisor to the US Secretary of Defence in the first Donald Trump Administration, said Pakistan is faced with internal difficulties, including a precarious economic situation. He suggested that India could play a credible role in facilitating dialogue due to its diplomatic relationships across different geopolitical blocs.
"For the Pakistanis to offer help is sort of like a man who is in a burning building offering you a spare room in the building. Pakistan's not going to be viewed in any way, shape or form as neutral by the Israelis," he said.
"They're going to view Pakistan as part of the problem. Why would you go to Pakistan to Islamabad to try and close a deal, if you will, on ending the war? That's an impossibility. It strikes me as just ludicrous nonsense," he added.
He said Pakistan has enormous problems. "Financially, they're insolvent and so forth," Col Macgregor said.

"Pakistan is not what I would call a civilisational state. It's part of a civilisational complex. But India itself is one of these core civilisational states, which is desperately needed, you know, in the world today," he added.
Col Macgregor said Israel is unlikely to trust mediation efforts led by Pakistan. "If the Israelis heard that they were supposed to show up in Islamabad for a meeting, I think they'd laugh it off. This is ridiculous. Why should we trust anything those people say?" he asked.
"That's not true for India. India is in a very good position that way," he noted.
He said Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in a position to offer real help, support and assistance and noted that he commands global respect and maintains working relationships with multiple international leaders.
"Prime Minister Modi is someone who enjoys a great deal of respect and confidence across the globe. He is someone who is at ease with (Russian President) Vladimir Putin in Moscow. He is comfortable talking to the leadership in Tehran. He recently visited Israel, and the Israelis are comfortable with him. We are comfortable with India," Col Macgregor said.
"I would urge Prime Minister Modi to talk to his advisors and call President Donald Trump...India itself is one of these core civilizational states, a large and powerful continental state...I think we would be better off if India exerted a great deal more influence in a place like the Indian Ocean and its surroundings," Col Macgregor said.

The West Asia conflict with Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other has entered its fourth week, causing disruptions in global energy supply chains.
Col Macgregor said the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed, "except for those exceptions which India, China, now Japan have managed to negotiate".
He cautioned that rising oil prices could have cascading economic effects worldwide. "When fuel goes up, fertiliser goes up, food goes up, animal feed goes up, all these prices rise simultaneously," he said.
The US geopolitical expert said the world is witnessing a major transformation, and India cannot afford to remain a passive observer in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
"India cannot afford to remain a spectator on the sidelines in this conflict because this war is not ending in two weeks. It's not ending in two months," he said.
He said there is no easy solution to the conflict. "There is no off-ramp right now, and we desperately need an off-ramp...."
Col Macgregor, who is widely recognized as an expert on force design and grand strategy, said India's growing economic and military stature places it in a unique position to engage with multiple stakeholders, and President Trump would listen to PM Modi.

"Well, I don't know that you, as a single actor, can guarantee anything. The reason I pick India is because I think President Trump, if he listens to anybody at this point, is probably going to listen to Prime Minister Modi...Remember, you are this large and powerful state economically, even militarily, more so than I think you appreciate...I think he will listen. I think the Israelis will listen...the man who has to deliver on the Israelis, let's be frank, is ultimately Donald Trump," " Col Macgregor said.
"Prime Minister Modi can help with this. You have been through a lot of things in your own history. Many countries in the world have been victims of imperialism and colonialism...I'm hopeful that perhaps Prime Minister Modi could help and assist, not guaranteeing success by any means that if he intervenes, that he can produce a miracle. But I don't see anything happening directly between us and Israel and Iran. I just don't see it at this point," he added.

" Col Macgregor also referred to points outlined by the United States and Iran for a ceasefire. "If you look at the points that we and now the Iranians...have now published what they say are their conditions for a ceasefire," he said.
Asked about reports that Iran doesn't want to negotiate with businessman Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff and maybe Vice President JD Vance can step in and be a voice of authority, he said, "I think Witkoff and Kushner... are viewed as people who are preeminently Israeli agents. They exist to represent Israeli interests."
"My impression is that...(Vance) he's vice president. Vice presidents are supposed to shut up, sit in a corner and wait to be called upon to do anything...So again, we're back to how does Trump get out of this mess?" he said.
The expert said he does not think Iran is going to give in to anything at this stage.
"You have Chinese satellites, Russian satellites feeding this imagery and information to the Iranians. The Iranians take this instantaneously, match it to their tactical ballistic missiles, and they can launch out to 1,000 miles," he said.
"If we go forward, as I think we will, and we take losses and we look ridiculous, it'll be that much harder to negotiate some sort of agreement in the aftermath," he added.

Iran had earlier responded negatively to an American proposal aimed at ending the ongoing conflict insisting that any cessation of hostilities will only occur on Tehran's "own terms and timeline," a senior political-security official told state broadcaster Press TV on Wednesday.
Iran said it will end the war when it decides to do so and "when its own conditions are met," the official told Press TV emphasizing Tehran's resolve to continue its defence and inflict "heavy blows" on the enemy until its demands are fulfilled.

Israel's media reported earlier that US President Trump and his administration have 15 conditions for Iran as its terms for ending the current conflict.
According to Israel's Channel 12, citing an unnamed official in the US, Washington has also informed Jerusalem of its negotiations.
However, the report said that Jerusalem is concerned that Trump and his team want to push for "a framework agreement" with Iran, rather than insisting on these demands as a condition for halting the war.
The conflict between Israel-US and Iran started on February 28 and has raised global concerns over loss of lives and energy supply disruptions.