PM Modi will retain Assam, is confident of winning Kolkata & will certainly expand in Keralam & Tamil Nadu: Dr Chandra

Assessing the electoral landscape across Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in the latest offering of the JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra discusses Narendra Modi’s campaign strategy, shifting political alignments, leadership dynamics, and emerging voter trends, with particular emphasis on narrative-building, regional power structures, and the role of ideological positioning in shaping outcomes. Dr Chandra portrays a sharply critical view of governance and electoral strategy, highlighting both political ambition and systemic failure. He further stresses that in Kerala, the BJP is seen shifting from a marginal player to a serious contender, aiming to expand its vote share and establish itself as a credible alternative. In contrast, he says, the Malda incident highlights a severe breakdown of law and order, prompting judicial intervention, while also exposing administrative disruptions and the unintended consequences of large-scale bureaucratic reorganisation. Excerpts…

• Today’s headline reads: ‘Waiting for April 9 – Modi’s winning stroke.’ What does this signify?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: It points to a powerful political narrative. Narendra Modi has the ability to craft a compelling narrative in every election, one that often results in sweeping victories. In this election as well, he has built such a narrative around tea, which is considered the soul of Assam. His interaction with tea garden workers, particularly women engaged in plucking tea leaves, and his personal participation in the activity can be described as a decisive move. Alongside this, he made an emotionally resonant remark, stating that he still considers himself a tea seller. This “tea narrative” has proven highly effective. Taken together, the narrative constructed during this campaign has the potential to become a game-changer, which is why it is being described as his winning stroke.
• Whenever PM attends an election rally or roadshow, people gather in large numbers just to catch a glimpse of him. What explains this aspect of his personality, and what do the crowds in Kerala and Puducherry indicate?
  This phenomenon requires a case study. It is extraordinary, almost like a natural gift. This is not limited to India but is visible across the world. Wherever he goes, heads of state and government are eager to meet him, receive him at airports, and interact with him. It can be described as a rare and exceptional trait. India is fortunate to have a Prime Minister with such immense public popularity. As far as Kerala and Puducherry are concerned, the crowds reflect his popularity and public connection. It is striking because the BJP is still in the process of building its base in Kerala, yet such enthusiasm is visible. Ordinary people come out on the streets, lining both sides as his convoy passes. The turnout in Puducherry was remarkable, with people gathering in large numbers. This reflects a strong sense of public appeal, both within the country and beyond.
• Given the significant presence of Bihari migrants in West Bengal, the party leadership has assigned a special responsibility to party president Nitin Nabin. How effective will this move be?
  It is a positive move and serves as a training ground, almost like a probation period. The election provides an opportunity to travel across the country and connect with people. He has already conducted more than 20 rallies and roadshows across Assam, Kerala and West Bengal. He is working continuously. In West Bengal, the presence of people from Bihar creates a natural influence. It is a good decision by the party to utilise his services, especially in Kerala and West Bengal, apart from Assam and other regions.
• Are these elections in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu being fought primarily on the faces of regional leaders?
  In Assam, the situation is under the central leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. It cannot be said that regional leaders alone are dictating the course. However, Himanta Biswa Sarma has emerged as a prominent face and can be considered a regional strongman. His stature has grown beyond that of a conventional chief minister, and he has built his own political brand. In the other states— Kerala, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, regional leaders and chief ministers play a decisive role. These elections are effectively a test for them, and broadly speaking, they are being fought on the strength of regional leadership.
• What are the major factors that could help Himanta Biswa Sarma return as Chief Minister?
  The most important factor is Narendra Modi’s confidence in him, followed by functional support from Amit Shah, which distinguishes him from other chief ministers. His governance record, marked by strong infra push and welfare schemes, adds to his edge, alongside a firm Hindutva positioning. During the PM’s recent visit, projects worth `47,000 crore were announced for Assam. This package could contribute significantly to bringing him back to power.
• How do you view the induction of senior Congress leaders such as Bhupen Bora and Pradyut Bordoloi, along with three MLAs, into the BJP just before the elections?
  It was a major political move, undertaken in consultation with the BJP’s senior leadership. Bhupen Bora, a former state Congress President, has considerable influence, and Pradyut Bordoloi has held a cabinet position. Their entry brought along three MLAs. It was a timely, last-minute move, largely driven by Himanta Biswa Sarma and endorsed by the party. It is likely to prove beneficial for the ruling BJP. Another significant factor is the emerging alliance between Badruddin Ajmal and Asaduddin Owaisi on 11 seats, which is a matter of concern for the Congress as it could influence outcomes in Muslim-majority constituencies.
• There appears to be a trend of leaders leaving the Congress to join the BJP just before elections. How do you interpret this?
  This trend is clearly visible and appears highly organised. The first step usually involves leaders publicly endorsing the BJP’s agenda, including nationalism and religious positioning, followed by a quiet transition into the party. Bhupen Bora’s case is a recent example. He first made statements criticising the Congress, alleging that it had become a Muslim-centric party and was pursuing appeasement politics, and later joined the BJP. This has led to questions about whether some Congress leaders work in favour of the BJP while still within the party. Rahul Gandhi had raised similar concerns earlier. Gaurav Gogoi also remarked that these leaders were already in contact with the BJP leadership. This reflects a broader issue of leadership deficit within the Congress and organisational weaknesses. Regional parties also sometimes function in ways that indirectly benefit the BJP. It is being seen as a success story for the BJP and Amit Shah’s political strategy, where alliances and manoeuvring are considered part of the political process.
• After delimitation, the number of Muslim-majority seats in Assam has reduced from 39 to 22. What impact will this have on the election outcome?
  It appears that the BJP could be a natural beneficiary, although elections remain uncertain and depend on multiple variables. It is difficult to quantify the exact distribution of gains and losses. However, delimitation is certainly an important factor and will influence the results, which will become clear on May 4. Additionally, alliances similar to those seen in West Bengal—such as between Owaisi and Humayun Kabir—are also emerging in Assam between Ajmal and Owaisi, which could affect Congress prospects in Muslim-majority areas.
• Why has there been relatively limited visibility of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry?
  It is difficult to state definitively. Rahul Gandhi has primarily focused on Kerala, where he expects the Congress to perform strongly. He has held rallies, roadshows and outreach programmes there. He is also scheduled to visit Assam for three days and had earlier spent two days there. Priyanka Gandhi, who is in charge of Assam, has visited only twice, which has raised questions within the party about the seriousness of its young leadership. There is a perception within the Congress that both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi have not been equally engaged across all states, leading to internal concerns.
• In West Bengal and Assam, there is a significant presence of Marwari and Rajasthani migrant voters. Which way is this vote bank likely to tilt?
  Traditionally, such voters tend to align with the ruling party. In West Bengal, however, the situation may be more balanced, as Mamata Banerjee also has a strong connection with the Marwari community. In Assam, this group has largely supported the Chief Minister. Overall, migrant Rajasthani voters appear more inclined towards the BJP. Several senior leaders from Rajasthan have been deployed to manage this vote bank, including Rajendra Rathore, Bhupender Yadav, Sunil Bansal, and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. Their coordinated efforts suggest a strategic push, and the BJP may have an edge among these voters, although the final outcome will be clear only after the results.
• In Kerala, will the Left Democratic Front return to power, or will the Congress-led United Democratic Front form the government?
  Traditionally, power alternates between the two fronts, but that pattern was broken in the last election when the Left retained power. This time, the BJP is emerging as a third alternative, aiming to establish itself as an independent political force rather than a kingmaker. While it is difficult to predict definitively, the United Democratic Front appears to have slightly better chances compared to the Left Democratic Front. The final outcome will become clear with the results.
• PM has said the countdown to the fall of Left government in Kerala has begun. Do you agree?
  BJP admits power in Kerala may take time but is focused on boosting vote share. With 15–20 seats, it could emerge as a game changer or kingmaker. For now, its priority is to block Congress, banking on rising public dissatisfaction and positioning itself as a growing independent force over successive elections.
• In a Kerala rally, PM remarked about “friendship in Delhi but rivalry in the state.” Who was he referring to?
  The remark was a satirical reference to the Left and the Congress. The suggestion was that while both parties cooperate at the national level, they present themselves as rivals within the state. The point being made was that political positions should be transparent and not appear contradictory.
• What are BJP’s expectations in Kerala, will its vote share increase?
  The BJP’s initial aim was to establish itself as a credible third force, targeting 15–25 seats, while independent estimates placed it at 10–12. Early expectations aligned with this, but strong responses to rallies by Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and JP Nadda, along with the party president’s outreach across 20–25 locations, have shifted its outlook.
  The party now seeks to grow beyond a third force and build itself as a strong, independent alternative in Kerala, believing its time will come. Vote share, around 12–12.3% in the last election, is expected to rise, and the BJP is confident of opening its account. Whether it secures 12–15 or 20–25 seats remains uncertain, but a vote share increase is seen as definite..
• How do you view the entire incident in which seven judicial officers engaged in SIR work in Malda district of West Bengal were held hostage for nine hours?
  The Malda incident is deeply unfortunate and audacious, pointing to a complete breakdown of law and order. The Chief Justice’s letter to the CJI was apt, prompting the Supreme Court to take suo motu cognisance and sharply observe a collapse of governance, summoning the Chief Secretary, DGP and District Magistrate. This intervention offers some reassurance to the public.
  Narendra Modi termed it a sign of a second phase of “jungle raj” in West Bengal, while Mamata Banerjee distanced herself, citing Election Commission control during polls—though governance carries moral responsibility beyond formal authority. Given the wider context in the state, the matter is extremely serious and its outcome now rests with the Supreme Court. A tragic dimension is the large-scale transfer of officials after poll announcements—25–50 SPs and several District Collectors—amid perceptions of proximity to the state leadership. Ironically, newly appointed officers, whether chosen by the Election Commission or locally recommended, were caught in the crisis, failed to prevent it, and now face accountability. In effect, officers entrusted with responsibility became victims of the very system they were meant to uphold.

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