PUTIN & ZELENSKYY BOTH TRUST MODI, THAT’S THE REAL DIPLOMATIC MIRACLE: DR CHANDRA

Highlighting the geo-political and economic effects of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, Dr Chandra said that despite global expectations, concrete progress on the Ukraine war remains limited, although both Russia and Ukraine continue to trust Narendra Modi’s ability to influence peace. He stressed that Modi’s diplomatic balancing is evident as India prepares to host Ukraine’s President after hosting Putin, reflecting Modi’s mastery in handling contradictions. Dr Chandra noted that the India– Russia decision to trade in local currency marks a real dent in the US Dollar’s dominance. He said Trump must be upset after India posted 8.2 per cent growth, calling it a “miracle”. On declining India–US tourism, he blamed visa and tariff issues. He added that Putin himself chose not to meet the Gandhi family and highlighted India’s expanding global economic centrality. Excerpts... (Part-II)

• Western nations, including Ukraine, hoped that during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi, Narendra Modi would use his moral influence to persuade the Russian president to end the Ukraine war. Has any progress been made in this direction?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: Look, whether anything ultimately happens is a later issue, but the fact is that the heart does not stop hoping. Ukraine is 5,000 km away, Russia is 4,500 km away, and both sides sit and think because they trust Narendra Modi. They believe he can do something. European countries say the same; they believe he can intervene. All stakeholders have trust in Narendra Modi. This time I read that European countries have appealed to him, saying that he should speak to Putin because Putin listens to him. This reflects their expectations. Based on those expectations, they hoped something might happen this time. But realistically, there was not much scope right now. In the current status of the Ukraine–Russia agreement, there isn’t much room for a ceasefire. Politically also, Narendra Modi may not like to waste his political capital at this moment, especially the capital he has built with Russia. However, Modi is open, and he has repeatedly said that the final solution is not on the battlefield. The solution lies in dialogue and diplomacy, and that is the only path forward.
  Earlier too, when he went there and also visited Ukraine, the messages that followed indicated that Ukraine was agreeable to a settlement. Russia also said it trusted Modi’s leadership. Then, in a way, Trump came into the picture; the US elections happened. People say Trump was like a bull in a China shop in the Ukraine war. Everything got disturbed. Now the situation is such that everyone’s scope for intervention has become limited due to Trump’s stance. Trump has made a one-way traffic kind of unilateral proposal. Russia is happy with it. They say the areas they control, they will take from Ukraine. Ukraine is not ready for that. Today I saw a post from Trump saying Ukraine is not responding while Russia is ready. This will continue like this. Still, European countries have hopes, and hope is fine. And the fact remains that Narendra Modi will certainly do something. When the situation progresses, Modi will try to put his influence wherever he can. But the matter has become very complicated. Earlier it had almost reached a point where talks could have happened through Narendra Modi’s mediation, and progress could have been made. That did not happen. Now the situation has changed. But still people hope. Let’s see if their hopes are fulfilled and a ceasefire happens there.

• It is being said that after Putin, his arch rival, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, is also coming to India. The Modi government is reportedly preparing a red-carpet welcome for him as well. How do you see this diplomatic management and balancing by Narendra Modi?
  Narendra Modi is a master of managing contradictions; you already know that. Look at this: Putin trusts him, and Putin also knows Zelenskyy is coming. He is coming with Putin’s knowledge and consent, not secretly. When Putin was here, he knew that the Ukrainian president might visit in the first or second week of January.
  Certainly, this is a rough and tough balancing act for Narendra Modi. There is no doubt about that. But he has been doing this for many years and will do it again this time as well. Zelenskyy is coming with this very hope. Sometimes a person feels that unless he meets face to face, the conversation doesn’t have impact. They feel their work won’t get done otherwise.
  Now look, Modi and Zelenskyy have spoken eight times on the phone. They have met physically four times. Still, the heart does not stop hoping. Zelenskyy is saying he wants to come to Delhi. He will travel 5,000 km to come here with the expectation that by sitting face to face, he will convince Narendra Modi that Putin listens to him and that Modi should help stop the war. It is with this expectation and hope that he is coming to India. He is welcome.

• India and Russia have taken a major decision to increase trade in local currencies, seen as a move that could weaken the dominance of the US dollar. How do you view this development, and how much of a threat does it pose to the dollar?
  There will be an impact; this is the beginning. The dollar, of course, is a very strong currency. But this is the beginning of a shift. The BRICS countries are also trying. India–Russia have already been doing this. The dollar will not disappear suddenly; it may take 10–20 years. But it will weaken because once you introduce a system of multiple currencies—as Russia and India have done—the strength of the dollar will decline.
  Certainly, it is a bad development for the dollar. This move to trade in local currencies is a negative signal for the dollar. It is essentially de-dollarisation in one sense. The dollar is still very strong, but this development has definitely put a dent in it.

• A few months ago, Trump described the Indian and Russian economies as “dead economies.” What would he say now after seeing India’s 8.2 per cent growth rate?
  He must be very upset and has no face to show. That’s basically it. In India, this is a miracle achieved under Narendra Modi. The Finance Minister has also said that despite global uncertainties, India under Modi’s stable leadership has achieved this growth. The 8.2 per cent growth in the third quarter is exceptional and unmatched anywhere nearby. It is a miracle.
  Earlier some people used to call India’s 2–3 per cent growth rate the “Hindu rate of growth.” Modi has taken this very seriously. Yesterday he said that such propaganda maligns an entire community and an entire civilisation. So in simple terms, this is a slap in the face of all those who questioned India’s growth rate, especially Trump, who called India a dead economy.
  India’s economic strength is evident with GST-2, earlier income tax reforms and upcoming customs reforms, which are expected to transform the economy. Piyush Goyal, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Ashwini Vaishnaw are leading the effort. Vaishnaw is increasingly seen as a key Cabinet figure and a reliable administrator, credited with strong performance in the railways and regarded as someone who could manage additional ministries effectively.
  The overall point is that Modi’s team—the think tank, the Finance Minister, Piyush Goyal, Ashwini Vaishnaw, and PMO officers—is unique. That is why this 8.2 per cent miracle has happened. This rate may even remain stable in the future, which would be a miracle among Asian countries.

• Over the past few years, tourism between India and the United States has been steadily declining. Does Gajendra Singh Shekhawat have any plan to address this?
  Gajendra Singh is very competent, but the situation is not in his control. Why has there been a decline? The reasons are clear: visa issues, tariffs, and the anti-Trump sentiment in India. People don’t want to go; parents are troubled because their children’s visas have been stuck. As long as these basic issues are not resolved, neither students nor traders nor tourists will go. These matters are beyond the control and competence of the tourism ministry.
  Until these three issues are resolved, tourism with the US cannot improve. But tourism elsewhere is booming. Look at the domestic tourism plan under Gajendra Singh Shekhawat: domestic tourism has grown tremendously. Nainital, Jaipur, Dehradun—you see two-kilometre lines, waiting time, traffic jams. Tourism is booming.
  He has made a plan that by 2030 India should be among the world’s top 10 tourism countries. After that, by 2047, India could reach number two or three. New tourist destinations are coming up, wedding destinations are booming. Except America, tourism is booming across the country vis-à-vis all other countries. Let’s see when the situation improves and what action is taken in this direction.

• What exactly is the Rahul–Kharge no-invitationto-Putin-dinner controversy? And why did Putin not take the initiative to meet Sonia or Rahul?
  This is indeed an important question. Rahul Gandhi says that foreign guests come but they are not invited. But this was a foreign guest whose country has had a long association with the Gandhi family. Russia’s leader has been in power for 30 years, and there have been ties with him.
  He came here and chose not to call on them or meet them on his own. That is also an aspect. Whether the government invited them or gave them an opportunity as leaders of the Opposition in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha is a question. But at the same time, when a guest arrives, he too can express the desire to meet someone. When foreign guests express such desire, the government arranges the meeting unless the person requested is someone anti-national.
  Putin likely had no intention of meeting them, and the reasons are straightforward. Today, economic interests outweigh political ones, and leaders act accordingly. He may have felt everything was on track and avoided creating a sensitive situation. The dinner invitation not materialising could simply be a communication gap. If Putin had wanted to meet them, he could have, and the controversy would not exist. It’s best to wait for the next opportunity.

• Do you think that today, besides the US and China, Russia is also eyeing India’s market of 1.4 billion people?
  Of course. As I said, everyone has multiple agendas, and that is natural. If China and the US are eyeing the Indian market, Russia should be the first to eye it. Russia has a better moral authority and moral conviction to operate in the Indian market, to sell and buy here. So they too are interested. Narendra Modi is in a unique position in the global economy because he has a market of 1.4 billion people behind him. Whether you like it or not, India cannot be ignored. You may support India or oppose it, but you cannot ignore it. Narendra Modi is the king of this 1.4 billion–strong market. Russia is also interested, and they are welcome. Come, buy here, sell here; they are welcome.

• How will India address the current trade deficit with Russia?
  It is a serious issue because oil transactions are happening in local currencies. Unless India exports more to Russia and increases the export of goods, the negative trade deficit cannot be corrected. India’s compulsion is that oil is available at a cheaper rate. Despite the negative trade deficit, we continue because the benefits are larger compared to the deficit. The Government of India is now serious. A complete plan is being prepared in the commerce ministry and the economic ministries on how to rectify this trade deficit with Russia. In the next two to three years, some improvement is expected. The current negative balance should be reduced, and that is the hope.

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