RAHUL-TEJASHWI DIVIDE WILL ENSURE THE VICTORY OF BJP-JD(U) ALLIANCE IN BIHAR: Dr CHANDRA

In an in-depth conversation on the political developments surrounding the Bihar Assembly elections, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra discussed the ongoing deadlock between Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the role of Tejashwi Yadav, the impact of family disputes within the Lalu Yadav household, the economic challenges of populist promises, from Prashant Kishor’s ambitions and caste realities to Chirag Paswan’s rise and the shifting equations within the Mahagathbandhan. Dr Chandra also weighed in on Amit Shah’s “four Diwalis” remark and the overall election dynamics in the state.. Excerpts... (PART-II)

• If Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav fail to reach an agreement on ticket distribution, could Bihar witness a repeat of Haryana or Delhi?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: Of course, if there’s no agreement on ticket distribution, it could lead to chaos. So far, no consensus has been reached. No one knows where Rahul Gandhi is — he seems to be waiting in Patna while KC Venugopal is saying something else. In fact, he narrowly escaped being attacked at Patna airport. Krishna, who is in charge there, appears to be in an entirely different world. Everyone within Congress stationed in Bihar is disheartened. Ashok Gehlot is confused about why he even came. Other leaders and in-charges are clueless about how to handle the situation. Bhupesh Baghel seems equally lost.
  At present, situation is completely uncertain. The only faint ray of hope is that neither Congress nor RJD has announced a single candidate yet. That’s the only thin thread of possibility left, a 24-hour window to find a compromise. If they fail, both parties will face certain political death. Frankly, whether they come together or not, a repeat of Delhi and Haryana is inevitable.
• Is Cong hesitant to declare Tejashwi as CM face due to his image crisis?
  That’s a feeling held by some within Congress. There are two groups, one led by idealists like Ajay Maken and Rahul Gandhi, who emphasise ethics, integrity, and values. The other consists of grassroots leaders like Ashok Gehlot, who often feel subdued in front of central leadership. Now, everything depends on the next 24 hours. Ticket distribution will reveal whether Tejashwi is being projected as CM face or not. Congress has been cautioned that declaring Tejashwi could be a major political risk and liability due to chargesheet filed against him in a Delhi court. If he is declared CM candidate, battle will be Nitish versus Tejashwi, one perceived as honest, other tainted by corruption allegations. The party fears that might harm them. But such assumptions are misplaced. In Bihar’s politics, people hardly care about chargesheets, they have seen Lalu Yadav facing cases for 20 years and still returning to power. So, the Congress is caught in a dilemma, to declare or not to declare. If they don’t, it’s practically over for them. Without projecting him, alliance loses seriousness. At present, Congress and RJD are already behind, while JD(U) is leading. Together they might reach around 130 seats, but the real test is political coherence. The only hope for CongressRJD lies in striking an agreement and declaring Tejashwi as their CM face. It’s a 50-50 situation now, the next 24 hours will be decisive.
• How do you see the impact of internal disputes within Lalu Yadav’s family on the elections?
  Not much. The people of Bihar are used to the internal dramas of the Lalu family, their quarrels, and occasional scuffles. Even when Tej Pratap advises his younger brother to act like Ram and uphold dharma, it’s seen as part of the family’s regular theatrics. During Tejashwi’s nomination, entire Yadav family was present, along with Sanjay Yadav, who acts as an extra-constitutional authority in the household. The daughter who donated a kidney to Lalu, now living abroad, also wants tickets for a few of her associates. But just as Rahul calls the shots in Congress, Tejashwi rules his family. He doesn’t listen to anyone. It’s a disappointed family, yes, but this won’t significantly impact poll outcome.
• Do you think Nitish Kumar’s women-focused initiatives have now shifted towards Narendra Modi?
  Yes, absolutely. Modi has emerged as a national hero for women across India. Consider this — 1.21 crore women and millions more have benefited from welfare schemes that could not have been implemented without the financial backing of the central government. Nitish Kumar couldn’t have funded these from the state exchequer alone. It’s Narendra Modi’s stature that he didn’t take sole credit but stood beside Nitish while distributing cheques to 75 lakh women. Across India, Modi continues to rise — even at 75, there’s no sign of decline, neither physically nor in popularity. The “women card” has effectively shifted from Nitish to Narendra Modi.
• With both alliances promising populist schemes, what is likely state of Bihar’s economy?
  Bihar’s economy is already in tears. The total budget is Rs 3.25 lakh crore, of which 33% goes to salaries and pensions. The new women’s scheme will consume another 33%. Around Rs 5,000 crore is already allocated to free electricity promises, 125 units per household, which adds up to Rs 9,000 crore more. Add pensions and subsidies, and you’ll see how fragile finances are. But in polls, politics trumps economics, winning votes is the priority. The only saving grace is that Modi’s government at the Centre is financially strong and can support the states. If the BJP fulfills its promises, Bihar might just manage. Otherwise, the economy will be in a very bad shape.
• If the NDA fails to secure a majority, could Bihar see a Maharashtrastyle political scenario?
  Unlikely. Nitish cannot be another Eknath Shinde, neither by age nor temperament. Bihar lacks the conditions that made Maharashtra’s episode possible. There’s no Ajit Pawar, no Sharad Pawar, and no Fadnavis-type factor here. Such moves happen only when one is desperate to form a government, in Bihar, a government will form regardless. However, politics is unpredictable. If Nitish wins 50 seats and 25 MLAs defect, creating a new “Shinde,” that’s another story. It’s not impossible, but chances are very low at this stage.
• What are the key issues on which BJP, JDU, RJD, and Cong are contesting on? Is there a similarities?
  The similarity is that all sides are pushing populist agendas. The BJP promises jobs for one crore people in five years, women’s empowerment, 35% reservation for women, and 125 units of free electricity. Congress focuses mainly on caste and reservation, even proposing to break 50% ceiling. Overall, both camps are relying on welfare schemes and emotional appeal rather than economic realism.
• Will GST rate cuts announced by PM Modi influence voters in Bihar?
  Absolutely, 100%. Bihar may be caste-oriented, but merit and economic relief also matter. The Rs 2.5 lakh crore GST relief has brought down rates from 12% to 5% on essential items. This affects nearly every household. Even saving Rs 100 means something to people here. It creates a “feel-good factor.” When everyday expenses reduce, say, travel from Rs 300 to Rs 200, people feel direct relief. That sentiment will definitely translate into votes.
• How do you assess PK (Prashant Kishor) factor, and who stands to lose more from his entry?
  PK is a mystery, a mirage, a googly. Whenever people outside Bihar discuss the elections, the first question they ask is, “What about PK?” The curiosity around him is enormous. If curiosity could turn into votes, he’d be CM already. But in reality, PK lacks an organisational structure, financial strength, and grassroots network. More importantly, he’s not contesting himself, a major negative move. His candidates (around 116) will have to win on their own merit, though the credit will go to PK. He’s fielded 31 Muslims, which will primarily hurt RJD and Congress by splitting antiBJP votes, especially in Muslim-dominated areas. Overall, he might win 5–8 seats at best. Buzz around him is far greater than his actual impact, but he remains a subject of national curiosity.
• Why did PK decide not to contest at last moment?
  Mainly because he wants to focus entirely on campaigning and managing the field. His supporters are disappointed, believing he should have contested. Stepping back makes it seem like half the battle is lost. Contesting gives a leader political empowerment and legitimacy. By not running, PK appears more as an advisor than an active player. May be he wants to focus on building his base, not rush for power. If the situation favours him, he can return later. That’s his strategy, cautious, calculated, and long-term.
• Don’t you think that because of his over-ambition, PK may eventually face same fate as Kejriwal?
  That seems a bit too harsh, and I sincerely hope not. Kejriwal’s fate has been unfortunate; he ended up in jail. PK’s situation isn’t like that, although yes, he does have ambition and aspires to emerge as an alternative to Congress. Many people in history have destroyed their own prospects by trying to become an alternative to someone else, something either impossible or not destined for them. PK too wants to be seen as a Congress alternative, just like Kejriwal. But if PK maintains his integrity and value system, he will not face such a tragic outcome. If destiny does have a ‘Kejriwal-like’ phase in store for him, it will take another two or three years to unfold. As of now, it is too early to say. Let’s wish him best, that he doesn’t become another Kejriwal.
• PK had said where RJD already has Muslim candidate, he wouldn’t field one. Reports say he broke his promise. Why did this happen? Where will Muslim votes go in this poll?
  There are two sides to this. PK claims he did not break his word. He says he told Tejashwi to inform him by the 9th, before he announced his list, about how many Muslim candidates the RJD would field. He waited, but there was no response. PK had publicly said he would declare his list on the 9th. Since no update came from RJD, he went ahead and announced his list, which included 31 Muslims out of 116. He still has more seats to fill, so even more Muslim names might appear later. So the point, who will this hurt the most? Clearly, the RJD and Congress. Their votes, particularly the antiBJP vote and the Muslim vote, will be split. PK’s move will divide opposition votes and divert a portion of Muslim support base. Meanwhile, RJD and Congress are still struggling to even finalise their own seats. Rahul Gandhi hasn’t been able to reach any concrete understanding with Tejashwi yet, they’re simply out of time. So yes, promise broke, but that’s how it happened.
• Why did Prashant Kishor ultimately have to bow to caste equations in ticket distribution?
  That’s both the truth and the tragedy of life. PK wanted to contest on ideals, inflation, employment, development, national unity, and communal harmony. Yet ultimately, even he had to bow before caste card. This is the biggest truth of 21st-century Indian politics, that even an educated, value-driven man like PK cannot escape caste. In Bihar, his compulsion is greater than it might be elsewhere because caste equations dominate every level of political calculation. In other states, the caste factor may not be as overpowering. But in Bihar, it dictates everything. So yes, it is true that even someone like PK, who speaks of principles and reform, now stands humbled before the caste card.
• Do you think Chirag Paswan has now emerged as a Dalit hero in Bihar?
  Absolutely. He was already seen as one, and that image has only grown stronger. He now commands about 5 to 5.5 percent of vote share. The way he has positioned himself since recent weeks, even if some of it was stage-managed, has worked in his favour. All those dramatic reconciliations, being persuaded, then refusing, then agreeing again, have boosted his appeal. Even a momentary act of resistance has added to his market value. I expect Chirag to perform better in this election. His party is likely to do well, which will further solidify his base as a Dalit leader. So yes, you can safely say that Chirag continues to be the hero of the Dalits in Bihar.
• Some NDA allies reportedly expressed dissatisfaction over Chirag being given 29 seats. Do you think alliance partners will eventually unite again?
  Yes, absolutely & they already have. You must have seen how every partner released identical statements, as if typed by same person. It almost looked coordinated, one command, one message: “Say this in national interest.” And everyone did. They all reaffirmed their faith in NDA, in leadership, in agenda of national devp. So everything is fine now. Delhi leadership often gives them a long rope, lets them vent a bit, but eventually, everyone returns to the fold.
• Last time, Chirag couldn’t stop Nitish. Do you think he can stop him this time?
  No, this time the story is completely different. It’s no longer in Chirag’s hands. The story now lies with Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Chirag’s role is limited to number of seats he wins. Last time, around 30 seats were mentioned, but you can’t directly compare LS and Assembly results. Even if he wins 10, 15, or 20 seats, those victories are entirely at the BJP’s disposal. He doesn’t really hold the power to harm anyone now. His command lies in hands of Amit Shah. Whatever seats he wins, he will ultimately offer them to the BJP. If they need him, they’ll engage; if not, he’ll continue as a Union minister, a young man with a long political future ahead. There’s no urgency for him to chase CM’s post now. Nitish will remain where he is; his position is secure. It does appear that Nitish may not become CM again, but if, that happens, the decision will be made by Modi and Shah, not Chirag. His role remains limited.
• Amit Shah recently said Bihar will celebrate Diwali four times this year. What did he mean?
  He said it in a spirit of enthusiasm, much like PM’s earlier remark about “two Diwalis.” The first, as the PM said, was “GST Diwali,” when tax cuts were announced before Navratri. The second would be when NDA wins, around 160 seats. Shah elaborated on that idea. He said first Diwali was the one for Ram Temple in Ayodhya, a moment celebrated across India. The second was when PM Modi transferred funds to 75 lakh women in Bihar. The third was the happiness from GST relief. And the fourth, will come when the NDA wins 160 seats in Bihar. So yes — let’s hope and extend our good wishes to this spirit of optimism.

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