Saffron Party a frontrunner in Kolkata, though Opinion Polls favour Mamata: Dr Chandra

Answering wide-ranging questions in the latest offering of the JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra gives a detailed assessment of the evolving political landscape, with a particular focus on West Bengal and national developments under Narendra Modi. He examines the prospects of a saffron surge, the implications of the women’s reservation bill, and the growing influence of leadership-driven politics. The discussion also explores voter polarisation, the role of identity blocs, and the uncertainty surrounding the SIR exercise. While acknowledging competing narratives, he underscores Modi’s centrality in shaping both governance and electoral dynamics across India. Excerpts...

• The headline of this episode of the JC Show asks, “Will Kolkata see a saffron flag this time?” What do you make of it?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: On the strength of the popular appeal of Narendra Modi and the organisational efforts led by Amit Shah, the Bharatiya Janata Party could, for the first time, form a government in West Bengal. It can be said that the party is already at the threshold of Kolkata, awaiting a formal mandate from the people of the state to assume power in the city. At the same time, most opinion polls are in favour of Mamata Banerjee, but polls do not determine outcomes; voters ultimately decide through their ballots. The final verdict will be clear on the 4th. That said, the possibility of a saffron government in Kolkata cannot be ruled out this time.
• How do you assess the entire sequence of events surrounding the failure to pass the delimitation and women’s reservation bill introduced in Parliament on the initiative of Narendra Modi?
  The situation must be understood from the requirement of a two-thirds majority for such a bill to pass. A total of 352 votes were needed, but there was a shortfall of 54. The total strength of the House is 543, out of which 528 members participated in the voting. The opposition holds 230 members, while the NDA has 298. The expected number was 292, but 298 votes were secured, indicating six additional votes. These may have come from Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s side in Andhra Pradesh, or it could be attributed to the floor management of Amit Shah. However, despite these factors, the bill ultimately failed to pass.
• Political observers believe that, despite the bill not being passed, Narendra Modi has emerged as a hero among women voters across the country. Do you agree with this assessment?
  Today, Narendra Modi has emerged as the foremost supporter of women across the country. He has issued a clear and direct warning, stating that women across India are watching closely. They are observing how one individual is standing firmly in support of their rights.
  Modi has conveyed that the bill must be passed, warning that women of India will not forgive those who oppose it and indicating political consequences for resistance. The BJP has launched a nationwide campaign in support of the bill, taking its message to villages. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said the party will inform people at the grassroots that the bill could not be passed due to opposition from the Congress and other parties.
• Union Home Minister Amit Shah strongly advocated for the bill in Parliament and presented Narendra Modi’s vision before the nation. Many have described him as the “man of the match” in the Lok Sabha. What is your view?
  Over the past few years, Amit Shah has devoted considerable effort to understanding parliamentary democracy in depth. His extensive preparation and long hours of study across subjects have made him highly proficient in handling legislative matters. As a result, whenever a major bill or significant issue arises, he consistently stands out in his role.
  This instance was no different. He delivered a direct and impactful statement, noting that the entire country is watching who stands with women and who does not. He also warned that those opposing the bill could face serious political consequences in the upcoming elections. With his preparation, conviction and clarity in Parliament, he once again emerged as the standout performer in the entire exercise.
• Similarly, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla has been widely praised across political parties for conducting the House with composure and dignity. What is your assessment?
  In many ways, he stands out as a notably calm and composed Lok Sabha Speaker. He speaks very little, and it is striking to observe how, as an individual, he remains seated for eight to nine hours with a consistent, composed expression. His demeanour reflects a steady and disciplined approach to presiding over proceedings. His conduct during the recent session was measured and dignified, maintaining composure while making brief interventions when required. Notably, he allowed Rahul Gandhi to speak without interruption, despite expectations of intervention. This reflects strong judgment in handling House proceedings. His overall conduct was widely appreciated, with leaders across parties acknowledging his manner of discharging responsibilities as Speaker.
• After Ram Temple, Article 370 & UCC push, delimitation & women’s reservation bills mark another major step. Are these linked to PM Modi’s leadership?
  Narendra Modi’s trajectory reflects timing, leadership and execution, marked by his ability to seize major developments and carry them to completion, with few initiatives failing to achieve intended outcomes. His approach combines political instinct, sustained effort, public support and a defined vision, with clarity of direction and focus on converting longpending issues into decisive action.
  Key developments long debated but unimplemented earlier, such as the abrogation of Article 370 and the Ram Temple issue, were advanced during his tenure. His leadership turns long-standing political challenges into tangible outcomes.
• What impact is this entire sequence of developments likely to have on women voters in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu?
  There is likely to be some impact, even if limited, as voters are generally aware of political developments and form their own assessments. In Tamil Nadu, there has already been visible opposition to these measures, and the prevailing perception suggests that MK Stalin may retain his position.
  While the overall shift may not be substantial, even a marginal swing of one to three per cent could work in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Given its alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, any incremental gain would be politically significant. Broadly, the BJP-led NDA is likely to benefit from the developments, though the extent of gains remains debated, with a reasonable expectation of a positive impact.
• Narendra Modi is currently seen handling two major fronts simultaneously—an ongoing election campaign and maintaining supply chains amid the US-Iran conflict. What is your assessment of this?
  It is a remarkable demonstration of capacity and coordination. Until recently, ensuring the continuity of supply chains— particularly for essentials such as petrol, diesel and gas—was a critical challenge, alongside managing international diplomatic engagements in the backdrop of the US–Iran tensions.
  At the same time, he has been holding multiple election rallies daily, shaping the political narrative and countering the opposition, while continuing administrative work late into the night after full-day public engagements. Over the past month, balancing governance during a sensitive international situation with an intensive election campaign reflects high endurance and organisational ability, underscoring the scale at which he has been operating.
• Most opinion polls and even some astrologers have predicted a return of Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. Is that a realistic possibility? Does she remain the frontrunner for the chief minister’s position?
  She continues to be the frontrunner, with little doubt about that, as opinion polls consistently indicate her lead, though such projections are ultimately subject to verification on counting day. According to available estimates, the Trinamool Congress is projected to secure a vote share of around 41.9 per cent, compared to 34.9 per cent for the Bharatiya Janata Party, indicating a significant gap. Seat projections place TMC at 174–184 seats, while the BJP is estimated at 108– 118 seats. Astrological assessments also reflect similar trends, with Kumar Ganesh projecting 168–185 seats for TMC and 104–115 for BJP. Across most polls and assessments, indications point towards Mamata Banerjee forming the government again, and even if outcomes vary, she remains the principal contender in the race.
• Politics is often described as a game of possibilities. If, even for a moment, one assumes that despite the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strong preparation and intense campaign, Mamata Banerjee wins the election again, what would the future of West Bengal look like?
  In a single line, one could say that outcomes ultimately follow their own course. If she is destined to return for a fourth term, that possibility cannot be ruled out. At the same time, the ground reality is that she is facing the toughest electoral contest of her political career. For the first time, the Bharatiya Janata Party has mounted such a strong challenge that a significant section of voters in the state believes it could form the government.
  If she returns to power, her political engagement with the central leadership, particularly Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, will be closely watched, especially whether a confrontational approach continues or shifts towards reconciliation. Concerns in political discourse are likely to persist, with issues like illegal infiltration and its impact on West Bengal’s demographic & political landscape expected to remain key points of debate. From a national perspective, beyond routine political differences, West Bengal will continue to be a key focus for the Centre, particularly on security, governance matters.
• Despite opinion polls favouring Mamata Banerjee, do you believe the massive crowds at Narendra Modi’s election rallies could alter the course of the contest?
  This surge in turnout at the Prime Minister’s rallies is being seen as a significant source of optimism. In recent days, there has been a noticeable increase in crowd participation at his public meetings, which has the potential to influence the overall electoral dynamics.
  The Prime Minister has openly urged voters to bring about a change in government and has indicated that, in his view, public sentiment is shifting in that direction. If the Bharatiya Janata Party were to form the government, the scale of mobilisation at these rallies, along with the sustained involvement and organisational efforts of Amit Shah, would be considered key contributing factors.
  Specifically, the large gatherings at these events have generated a sense of possibility within the party and across political circles that the BJP could be in contention for forming the government.
• What impact is the Trinamool Congress’s Muslim outreach strategy likely to have on the election outcome? Similarly, how significant is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Hindu mobilisation? Do Dalit voters also play a decisive role in West Bengal politics?
  The Trinamool Congress’s outreach among Muslim voters remains a crucial factor. There is a prevailing perception that a significant number of votes have been affected, with some estimates suggesting a figure of around 9.1 million. However, the broader understanding is that Muslim voters in the state remain largely consolidated and aligned with Mamata Banerjee. Other political figures, such as Asaduddin Owaisi and Humayun Kabir, have not been able to significantly alter this alignment.
  In terms of electoral strategy, the Trinamool Congress has fielded Muslim candidates in 52 constituencies, reinforcing its outreach. While the precise electoral impact of various administrative or procedural factors remains uncertain, the broader assessment is that there is no substantial competing force within this voter segment, and it continues to favour the Trinamool Congress.
  On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s mobilisation around Hindu identity is also a prominent factor. Narendra Modi has articulated concerns around issues such as infiltration and demographic changes, which have resonated with sections of the electorate. This mobilisation is seen as one of the key reasons why the BJP has emerged as a strong contender in the state. From holding 77 seats in the previous election, the party is now being projected in some estimates to cross the 100- seat mark, with figures around 118 seats being discussed.
  The political landscape in West Bengal is widely viewed as highly polarised, with a clear consolidation of voter blocs, which has amplified the role of identity-based mobilisation in electoral contest. Dalit voters form a significant and influential segment, with reports suggesting that out of 294 seats, nearly 195 constituencies are those where they can play a decisive role, while in around 127 seats their population exceeds 25 per cent. This makes them an important factor in shaping electoral outcomes in the state.

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