THIRTY YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSION

It has been since 1995, stakeholders gather as Conference of the Parties popularly known as COP to express their concern on climate change and its impact on humanity. This year, COP 30 will be taking place at Belem of Brazil amidst several doubts appeared on its relevance and to find a way out. The weakest aspect of COP is still lack of consensus on reaching at binding agreement amongst countries and implementation of discussion on ground. Fact stays that a large number of participants take part to express their concern on increase in global warming. Considering outcome of last 29 COPs, one of the major questions remains if conversation will convert to meaningful implementation. Otherwise, it will be another conference with revised goals, superficial discussions, and no answerability. However, concern on global warming does not mean just expressing it during the discussion, rather action plan should be based on goal analysis of on ground realities. Low- and Middle-Income Countries, Small Islands are facing major heat of Climate Change. Yet, rich economies are shying away from support to affected parties. Though, all these discussions on climate change are taking place as per desire of those countries.

Key challenges before COP30 include aligning new national climate pledges (NDCs) with the 1.5-degree Celsius goal, ensuring the developed world meets its climate finance commitments, and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Other challenges are scaling up adaptation and resilience, translating commitments into implementation, and addressing the needs of developing nations with their climate transitions. The ongoing debate over liability and reparations, alongside growing climate impacts, will also be key issues. The conference must address the concept of a “just transition” to ensure the climate transition does not worsen inequalities, particularly for developing countries. It is an established act that developed or rich nations are the biggest polluters and in no mood to compensate the loss and damage occurred due to uncontrolled industrialisation and consumeristic practices. During Conferences held in the past, issue of liability and reparations for climate damages stays significant and complex challenge but not resolved amicably. It would be a major point of debate this year as well.

Year on year, temperature, wildfires, deforestation, natural calamities are on increase. Those have direct impact on Biodiversity and ecosystem at large. Road to achieve, Seventeen Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, is far too away. However, this biodiversity is currently under threat, with 33.5 million hectares of humid primary forest lost between 2002 and 2024. This equals to nearly half of Brazil’s total tree cover loss, according to Global Forest Watch data. As forests are among the most effective carbon sinks, this loss contributes significantly to climate change. Brazil aims to highlight the interconnectedness of biodiversity loss and climate change, as reflected in its priorities. Grand expectations surround the upcoming COP climate conference in Brazil. One of the most critical topics will be easing the various resource-mobilisation goals to improve the mitigation and adaptation capacities of developing countries. Implementing the carbon market under the Paris Agreement will also require further efforts. The United States’ withdrawal could result in a diplomatic shift toward China, while growing reliance on fossil fuels may also influence the negotiations. In this context, Brazil seeks to promote biodiversity protection, preserve essential carbon sinks—especially tropical forests— and advance sustainable agricultural practices.

Furthermore, COP29 adopted a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance, calling on public and private actors to scale up financing to developing country parties from all sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. This is a substantial advancement compared to the earlier USD 100 billion per year goal by 2020 aimed at supporting the mitigation efforts of developing countries. As the adoption did not convert to implementation, several regional groups expressed concerns about the NCQG’s inefficiency and vagueness. The African Group and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) have called for more detailed provisions and greater financial ambitions, while Brazil, South Africa, India, and China emphasized the need for clearer specifications on developed countries’ financial obligations. Despite thirty years of discussions, declarations, and agreements, finance remains a major bottleneck, and non-developed countries lack the lobbying power to push mitigation strategies. COP also focuses on implementing earlier commitments and urging nations to enhance their ambitions. Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years, a legal obligation confirmed by the Int’l Court of Justice.

However, these discussions are gradually losing seriousness. Only 13 of 195 parties met the Feb 10, 2025 deadline for third-round NDCs, prompting an extension to September.

The European Union and China missed the extended NDC deadline, while the US remains disengaged. Without commitment from major emitters, COP 30 risks becoming a mere annual formality.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Dr Vivek S Agrawal, The writer is a specialist on Urban Health and Environment